Sunday, December 5, 2010

Bihar Elections - A New Trend or Old wine in a New Bottle?

The Bihar Elections is not a story of the success of Nitish Kumar and the defeat of Laloo Prasad Yadav ... it's not a story of the astonishing growth of a party essentially built on a Hindu backlash to Muslim vote banks (the BJP), in the Muslim hinterlands, it's also not a story of the final dismantling of the great social engineering plank that the Congress once was ...... it's much beyond all of this!

It is a story of a state that was once at the vanguard of India, as we know it - a state that once led India in all possible indices of development and prosperity.... It is the story of a state that gave rise to the first empire of India, the Nandas and then nourished the next two..... This is the story of a state that was once synonymous with power and diplomacy, where Chandragupta taught the power of the sword and Ashoka showed the power of the word; where Arya Chanakya taught statecraft and Gautam Buddha delvered enlightenment .....

It's all of the above 'But' more importantly this is a story of a state that fell from grace as did Adam from Eden and then languished in the doldrums to such an extent that a day did arrive when the state that had burnt many a candles for two millenia and more, was suddenly left in the dark with no candles, no torch, no light.... It's also the story of Man's indomitable fight against circumstances - of the dream that lives on, even when the reality forces one on, on a path different from the dream...... This is the story of Bihar!

Karpoorji Thakur had two illustrious and much-appreciated students - students, any teacher would be proud of ... this is the story of those two students, their contrasting ways and purposes and how a state was destroyed while the two went their separate ways....

But for India and for the rest of the continent, this is also a story that asks one specific question: Can the Governance of the Indian Sub-Continent be ever liberated from the cesspool of personal and communal considerations in which it finds itself mired today? Do not think, for a second, that this is the question of India alone - for it's not! Every incident in this entire-subcontinent even if takes place on the far-flung corners of the same, does in a course of time impact each and every player, sooner or later....

The results are out - on the face of it, it seems development has won the first round and casteist and  communal politics have been shown the door... In the words, of television anchors and reporters, the ones who are the first to see a trend where there are none and also the first to abandon the trend when public or business opinions change, Bihar has made a turnaround..... today, the populace of Bihar has rejected the charisma of Laloo to the pragmatism of Nitish.....

To an extent, it's true that, yes, Nitish has been a benefactor to Bihar.... he has brought about a turnaround that none could have ever expected or believed in ..... where doing business yesterday was a matter of fear, today chambers of business proclaim increment in investment! Where kidnappings was once the order of the day, today womenfolk are seen travelling even about 7 PM! And finally, the roads of Patna do look somewhat like the cheeks of Hema Malini - so what if the cheeks still belong to the Hema of 2010 and not the Hema of 1970 - still it's a vast improvement, at least they do resemble the much-vaunted Libran cheeks and that too for quite a distance in the hinterland.... not even Delhi can boast of such cheeks in the hinterland!

Yes, development has come to Bihar! Finally! At Last! but is this the end of the Caste Politics, has the Vote Bank Politics finally come to an end, has the sub-continent finally moved on? These are more difficult questions and to be frank, it would be too early to sound the bugle on any of these....

The Great success has not come without making concessions to the other side, the decadent dark face of the spectrum .....  as we shall see, the politics of they versus us has not yet been fully dismantled and this is where the concern lies ....

Where Laloo had ruled the crest of power on the MY factor (Muslim-Yadav factor), what Nitish did was to make the same combine redundant by taking two concurrent steps; the first step was to create a bigger block of the Mahadalits ..... the castes, now called MBC (Most Backward Castes), these are the backbone of his current success and have taken the war to the next level.....

From the 50s to the 80s, the battlefield was the SC and the ST, by using the Mandal Commission to it's benefit, Laloo and his counterparts, launched the OBC (Other Backward Caste) Revolution, becoming thus the face of social re-engineering and enjoying years at the helm; what Nitish did in Bihar was to position himself to the lower ends of the spectrum and weld them into a weapon of his choice..... Laloo's alliance partner, Ram Vilas Paswan could have countered him as a leader of the MBC but Nitish, using brilliant choice of men and measures, converted him from a leader of the Dalits to only a leader of the Paswan community, thus taking away from him the leadership of the entire Dalit community, thus marginalizing him in his own den ... It takes a Mayawati to play those kind of smart manoeuvring games (one of the reasons she continues to be a powerful player in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh), but Ram Vilas is no Mayawati ..... hence, what could have been, did not happen....

On the other hand, by consistently refusing Narendra Modi, who's perceived all over India as a butcher of innocent Muslims, a chance to campaign for his allaince, he got 2 things in clear perspective - 
  • he reminded the entire BJP brass, that in matters concerning Bihar, he was the boss and he also ensured that the man on the street also felt and understood this message clearly, and 
  • secondly assured the Muslims that a Gujarat kind of carnage could not be repeated in Bihar, since he was in complete control here ......
Contrary to the expectations from a Chief Minister of the NDA, Nitish actually reached out to the Muslims by effectively allowing the integration of the most backward in the community - the Pasmanda Muslims, thus creating a major rift in the formidable MY Equation.....

These two strokes, masterfully played along religious and casteist lines ensured that the much-famed Laloo hand was in severe disarray.....

Add to it, the fact that Development that was something the secular public (not to be confused with leanings but with the open category) always wanted and were now finally enjoying after more than a decade of hunger.... today Bihar is more connected, more confident, more sure of itself and the janata there feels more empowered then it ever did in the last 20 years ....  it was but obvious that Laloo had a battle on his hand...

The final act in the game was women .... with 50% reservations accorded to the women in local and panchayat polls, with free bicycles being distributed among women so that they could study and by endorsing and ensuring the safety of women on the streets by killing the crime rate, Nitish was able to get the most powerful and most difficult players in the game on his side..... whether it's tokenism or not, we will see later .. but as for now, Nitish had the backward community, the Muslims, the general public, the businessmen and the women on his side- something that got reflected in the elections..... Muslims were voting for BJP candidates not because suddenly there was no love lost between traditional enemies but because they were looking beyond BJP to Nitish.....it was the strings of Nitish which got him the result

Looking backwards, everything seems so easy .. .the challenge is not behind but ahead... as the Spiderman comics and movies, often declare..... 'With Great Powers come Great Responsibilities' .... I would say, with Great Expectations come Greater Disillusionment.... the clock is ticking .... and he is now in the most challenging of times.... till yesterday, he was being judged against the inefficiencies of Laloo.... today, he's being judged against the past successes of Nitish.... the battlelines have been drawn.... one wrong step and things can go downhill.... Public perceptions are fickle, they can never be trusted, as Obama would regretfully attest..... so from this time on, it's a walk on a tightrope.....

If Nitish succeeds this time, it may mean that Caste and Community considerations, can, if not today then tomorrow, be slowly marginalized because a second consecutive success would mean that a new rainbow coalition has emerged and rainbow coalitions can and may change the rules of the games..... till then, the battle is in balance....

All the Best Nitish.... and a beautiful couplet from Iqbal ..may it help
Khud Hi Ko Kar Buland Itna, Ke Har Taqdeer Se Pehle,
Khuda Bandey Se Khud Poonchey, 'Bata, Teri Raza Kya Hai?'

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