The 'War Against Terror' by the 'Coalition of the Willing' has created a major political and existential mess for the entire world but due to it's unique position as both victim and aggressor, witness and accused, prosecutor and defence, the Subcontinent is in deeper waters than any other region in this comedy of the absurd. Osama is dead, but he has left behind enough headaches for this region and I am sure this region will go through a bloodbath before even a thought of exorcism can be entertained. As long as our political disunity is a truth, peace is a myth.
Though it can be easily proved that the mess has been created and furthered by actors outside the Subcontinent, the actions of some of the political actors of the area such as Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh cannot escape scrutiny. There are very few political divisions that can say with a degree of certainty that they are in no way responsible or touched by this major concern, an example can be made of Bhutan and to some extent Maldives.Anyways, a lot of water has flown down the river since those days, when the ideology and the infrastructure of the philosophy was created, today my major concern is the immediate impact of the situation on the future.
India should fear the impact of the current situation. There are many in the political establishment who are gloating over the current impasse generated in Pakistan, busy in garnering brownies and gathering laughs but they fail to see that the so-called tight spot is an illusion.
I was saddened and shocked to hear the Army General speaking out of turn on the hot pursuit theory. Does the general, respected as he is, know the implications of such a scenario. Warmongers have been painting pictures of 1971 and 1999 but lot has changed since then.... Pakistan has the 4th largest Nuclear Arsenal that is rising consistently, an immense pool of non-state actors that it can use as a proxy, is not dependent on India in any aspect, has a support structure in form of China and is a 'neighbour'; however uncomfortable that may seem. Also, unlike India it has not agreed to 'No First Use' Clause and it can easily override India's No First-Use Clause by using non-state actors; all of them being on their tight leash..... Why would the respected Army General making such a silly statement?
America is not the saviour of Indian interests, nor is it anything more than a faithless lover who will throw off the yoke of your love, the moment it's realpolitik and economic interests dictate otherwise.... currently, there is no reason why America should dump it's bed-partner, Pakistan and make a love covenant with India- in short this bed is going to lie empty for some more time now!
America needs Pakistan in Afghanistan and let's be clear the Great Game that started with the Treaty of Gulistan in 1813 is still on, in fact it's more urgent, more important and more dangerous and for America that one need of being a player in the region will easily override all other aspects, even bankruptcy. Also the fact that Pakistan is the only reliable go-between America has in it's hand, in case China and America have a disagreement is a clincher; remember China holds the reins of more than a Trillion Dollars in Debt plus has a strong moderating influence on North Korea and is also the rising power, the one expected to throw America on the sidelines...... China publicly supporting a beleaguered Pakistan recently is proof of the geopolitical realities of our times.....
If India needs to fear the situation, Pakistan needs to be terrified of it.... It's open history that none of the dictators supported by America have come to any good in the long run; in the short-run, Pakistan will squeeze America by the balls and maybe even make them dance to the monkey tune but make no mistakes, it's not going to last.... Pakistan's importance in the American psyche is not derived from it's own position per se but because of it's power and reach in secondary and more important regions.... it's the gateway to Central Asia, the point of control for the Afghan heartland, a way to the Middle Kingdom and a watchdog to Iran and Russia; these parameters can change in a blink of an eye.
Secondly, it's foolish to ride a Lion, hoping that someday it will be a tame Lion .... the Mullahs, by history have always shown their desire and fascination for temporal power..... they cannot be controlled forever and one day will demand more than Shylock's pound of flesh... any religious fundamentalism has a way of consuming the one who creates the mess .... be wary and be cautious
Thirdly, the unity and integrity of Pakistan itself is under question.... Baluchistan may go the Bangladesh way if things do not improve, the only reason it has survived in the confederation so far is it's regional proximity to Iran on the extreme western border of the Sub-continent and Afghanistan which is itself in severe turmoil. Sind is restive while the NWFP still dreams of a united Pukhtoonkhwa.
Afghanistan, the northern-most boundary of our Continent also has a lot to fear. Americans need to show to it's local populace that the War on Terror is not Vietnam Part II and may insist on the division of the country in two parts with the Northern and the Southern parts divided .... Partition is a favourite weapon of the colonial and the imperialist powers. They have ruled the world on basis of Partitions and it's obvious that they will try it again...... but this would be very deadly and if America goes ahead with this plan, the backlash will be very dangerous and America will find to it's chagrin that the cure is worse than the disease
We are living in very dangerous times, I hope the people who are leading us can handle it well or our Continent will have nothing but tears and blood to show for our errors of omission and commision
Though it can be easily proved that the mess has been created and furthered by actors outside the Subcontinent, the actions of some of the political actors of the area such as Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh cannot escape scrutiny. There are very few political divisions that can say with a degree of certainty that they are in no way responsible or touched by this major concern, an example can be made of Bhutan and to some extent Maldives.Anyways, a lot of water has flown down the river since those days, when the ideology and the infrastructure of the philosophy was created, today my major concern is the immediate impact of the situation on the future.
India should fear the impact of the current situation. There are many in the political establishment who are gloating over the current impasse generated in Pakistan, busy in garnering brownies and gathering laughs but they fail to see that the so-called tight spot is an illusion.
I was saddened and shocked to hear the Army General speaking out of turn on the hot pursuit theory. Does the general, respected as he is, know the implications of such a scenario. Warmongers have been painting pictures of 1971 and 1999 but lot has changed since then.... Pakistan has the 4th largest Nuclear Arsenal that is rising consistently, an immense pool of non-state actors that it can use as a proxy, is not dependent on India in any aspect, has a support structure in form of China and is a 'neighbour'; however uncomfortable that may seem. Also, unlike India it has not agreed to 'No First Use' Clause and it can easily override India's No First-Use Clause by using non-state actors; all of them being on their tight leash..... Why would the respected Army General making such a silly statement?
America is not the saviour of Indian interests, nor is it anything more than a faithless lover who will throw off the yoke of your love, the moment it's realpolitik and economic interests dictate otherwise.... currently, there is no reason why America should dump it's bed-partner, Pakistan and make a love covenant with India- in short this bed is going to lie empty for some more time now!
America needs Pakistan in Afghanistan and let's be clear the Great Game that started with the Treaty of Gulistan in 1813 is still on, in fact it's more urgent, more important and more dangerous and for America that one need of being a player in the region will easily override all other aspects, even bankruptcy. Also the fact that Pakistan is the only reliable go-between America has in it's hand, in case China and America have a disagreement is a clincher; remember China holds the reins of more than a Trillion Dollars in Debt plus has a strong moderating influence on North Korea and is also the rising power, the one expected to throw America on the sidelines...... China publicly supporting a beleaguered Pakistan recently is proof of the geopolitical realities of our times.....
If India needs to fear the situation, Pakistan needs to be terrified of it.... It's open history that none of the dictators supported by America have come to any good in the long run; in the short-run, Pakistan will squeeze America by the balls and maybe even make them dance to the monkey tune but make no mistakes, it's not going to last.... Pakistan's importance in the American psyche is not derived from it's own position per se but because of it's power and reach in secondary and more important regions.... it's the gateway to Central Asia, the point of control for the Afghan heartland, a way to the Middle Kingdom and a watchdog to Iran and Russia; these parameters can change in a blink of an eye.
Secondly, it's foolish to ride a Lion, hoping that someday it will be a tame Lion .... the Mullahs, by history have always shown their desire and fascination for temporal power..... they cannot be controlled forever and one day will demand more than Shylock's pound of flesh... any religious fundamentalism has a way of consuming the one who creates the mess .... be wary and be cautious
Thirdly, the unity and integrity of Pakistan itself is under question.... Baluchistan may go the Bangladesh way if things do not improve, the only reason it has survived in the confederation so far is it's regional proximity to Iran on the extreme western border of the Sub-continent and Afghanistan which is itself in severe turmoil. Sind is restive while the NWFP still dreams of a united Pukhtoonkhwa.
Afghanistan, the northern-most boundary of our Continent also has a lot to fear. Americans need to show to it's local populace that the War on Terror is not Vietnam Part II and may insist on the division of the country in two parts with the Northern and the Southern parts divided .... Partition is a favourite weapon of the colonial and the imperialist powers. They have ruled the world on basis of Partitions and it's obvious that they will try it again...... but this would be very deadly and if America goes ahead with this plan, the backlash will be very dangerous and America will find to it's chagrin that the cure is worse than the disease
We are living in very dangerous times, I hope the people who are leading us can handle it well or our Continent will have nothing but tears and blood to show for our errors of omission and commision
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